The probability to die because one of this reasons is nearly 0%. No one cares about dying as consequence of this illness as the probability is too little.
But my question is the following: If there's a probability of 3500 / 45000000 of dying in a traffic accident, a probability of 3000/45000000 of dying swimming into the sea or the swimming pool and 2000000/45000000 of dying because an strange illness, why do the people think that they are going to win the Christmas lottery of Spain which has a probability of 1/100000, the primitive lottery (1/10000000) or the Euro-million which has a probability of 1/40M?
Having said that, it would be a rational decision if you stop playing casino games and lotteries. Would you like to have a good retirement whenever you decide to stop working? Good news are that I have a good method of winning a couple of thousand dollars with the 99,9999999999999999999% of probabilities that you are not going to loose anything.
So my recommendation is: Take all the money that you would spend in your whole life playing casino games and lotteries and buy S&P 500, NASDAQ, Nikkei, IBEX 35, DAX 30, FTSE or any other indexes. The history of the stock-markets has shown that in a 30-40 year placement every market has grown, no matter when you had entered into the market. Even if you bought some of those index before the Great Depression you would have been winning money after a 30-40 year placement. There will always be cracks, but you should see a Crack in the economy as a good moment to buy cheap.
The human people are not rationale, and even if they know that they won't win the lottery they'll play it, and even if they know that in a 30-40 year period the economy will go up they won't buy shares for such a long period. An speculator will earn money betting on the short-run with small firms and they'll win for a couple of years, but even George Soros, an speculator who made the English Bank go bankruptcy failed when trying to depreciate the Hong Kong currency.
There has not been any speculator that has been speculating and winning for more than 10 years. Statistics do not lie, statistics are true, and another big true is that Human mind is not rationale, and people will keep thinking that they'll find a secret method to speculate with the stock-markets and win, they will think that they'll be the first speculator to get billionaire in a period longer than 10 years, and they think they'll be able to win the lottery. People will not follow the advice and they will loose.
My advice is to create a diversified portfolio with big firms that you know they will not go bankruptcy as they can't go bankruptcy because they would cause a break down in the system. Buy stocks from this portfolio, but no more than the money you would spend buying lottery in your whole life. By this way you will win money if the market behaves as always has been behaving, and if it doesn't behaves like this, do not worry at all, as you would have not lost more money than you would have lost buying lottery.
I will post an example of a diversified portfolio and a strategy to go further than the index of any country in a while.
Thank you for your reading and do not hesitate to contact me or post a comment in the post!
Marc Ramon Hernández
